When the company that employed me as financial director floated on the London stock exchange some years ago it was quite a heady experience, albeit with a delayed culture shock.   We soon found that we had to focus on periods of six months, for if we produced a single set of bad figures our share price would fall and we would be vulnerable to hostile take-overs.  Long-term planning was sacrificed on the altar of short-term results.  

Politicians are not so pressured.  In general, cabinets work for five-year periods, although individual ministers are shuffled much more frequently.  Nevertheless, this does not encourage long-term thinking, and it is not surprising that Britain’s infrastructure planning record is so woeful.

This is not just a modern phenomenon, but society today has two benefits unavailable to previous generations:  a range of specialist skills for every situation and computer modelling to quickly identify the best option.  Unfortunately, in the process, we seem to have lost the ability to apply common sense to gain the perspective provided by the bigger picture.

For example, when Beeching was given the task of making the railways more profitable he correctly identified the problem and suggested axing uneconomic lines.  But that recommendation was acted upon without taking into account the affect on rural communities, the environment, and road transport.   The impact has been amplified over the decades, and is unresolved today.

Now, twenty years after the idea was first mooted, the government tells us that Heathrow Airport should have a fifth terminal.  The actual planning process took eight years, and the decision was announced to an airline industry on its knees following the September 11^th highjackings and more recent disasters.  If ever there were a need for a different perspective this is it.

To identify the kind of society we would like we have to look at the bigger picture.  Do we want to transport goods and people at the expense of the environment and life style?  Do we want to commute when we have the technology to work from home?  Do we want business travel rather than video-conferencing?  Do we want cheap air travel or should we tax aviation fuel in the same way we tax road vehicle fuel?  Do we continue to rely on the volatile Middle East for our oil or do we invest in producing our own greener alternative?

It has been estimated that last year delays on the London Tube wasted the equivalent of over 6,000 man-years.  Not only is that extremely inefficient economically, but the knock-on effect of such misery in people’s lives is horrendous.  We argue about whether the police should target users of soft drugs, the pushers on the street, or the drug barons.  But if we really want to tackle the source rather than the symptom we should be looking for the reasons people need prescribed or recreational kicks and pacifiers.  Reducing stress and providing more quality living time could be a giant first step.

All computer models are based on assumptions, usually involving the extrapolation of current trends, but that does not have to be the starting point.  The first question should be: do we want those trends to continue?

If we can identify the factors required for modern housing, community living, work patterns, shopping and leisure facilities, energy and transport, long-term plans will fall into place.  If the bigger picture is kept in mind then individual problems will not be resolved in isolation, creating conflict elsewhere in society.  And if central planning caters for local needs, long-winded, expensive enquiries will become a thing of the past. 

Whether Heathrow’s T5 is ever built or not, let this £83m inquiry be the last of its kind.  If only we could look forward to a White Knight take-over!